Gingrich grabs nod with likely S.C. primary voters

By Jonathan McFadden
mcfaddenj@mytjnow.com

South Carolina voters planning to cast their ballot in the first-in-the-South GOP primary next month favor former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich as the Republican nominee for the 2012 presidential election, with Mitt Romney trailing second and Texas Gov. Rick Perry covering the tail end at third, according to results from the latest Winthrop Poll.

Among likely Republican primary voters, nearly 39 percent said their first choice for their party nomination would be Gingrich, a remarkable jump from the September 2011 poll which had only 5.3 percent of respondents say they would vote for Gingrich in January.

The same September poll showed that Rick Perry appeared to be the party favorite, his results coming in at nearly 30 percent. Respondents in September also mentioned Perry more frequently when asked which candidate they thought would win the GOP primary.

Now, the tables have turned and Gingrich, who led a campaign many analysts thought was flailing, is blazing a lead in the palmetto state and possibly in Iowa, a state whose caucuses since the 1970s have served as an early indication of which candidate would go on to represent his party in the presidential race.

But, maybe Gingrich shouldn’t start celebrating too soon.

“A lot of the Gingrich numbers are less for Gingrich than for ‘Not Mitt,’” said Scott Huffmon, associate professor of political science. “Gingrich needs to convert those into true supporters.”

Appealing to anti-Romney voters may not be easy, Huffmon said, given that the harsh status of “front runner” has illuminated Gingrich’s past to the typical voter.

 In the past week, Gingrich has won criticism for his remarks about poor kids, who he said lack the motivation to develop proper work habits and make money unless involved in illegal activity.

The Republican from Georgia suggested poor kids should be given work as janitors in schools so they learn how to work.

On Monday, Gingrich sought to clarify his comments, saying he was referring to children in public housing projects where there are few employed adults.

Gingrich has also been criticized for his three marriages, two of which ended when Gingrich carried on extramarital affairs.

If he hopes to win the party nod, Gingrich needs to do well in Iowa, Huffmon said.

Polls from Iowa show that Gingrich is maintaining a steady lead with voters.

As for Romney, who has held consistent numbers despite a succession of “Not Mitt” candidates, Huffmon said he needs to do well in Iowa and take New Hampshire by storm.

Poll interpreters say it is clear sexual harassment accusations and details of an extramarital affair have marred Herman Cain’s campaign. In September, nearly 8 percent of likely primary voters chose him as their party choice. The newest poll shows that his rating has declined to 6.6 percent.

Since late October, Cain, former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza and head of the National Restaurant Association, had been battling allegations that he sexually harassed several women.

The death blow came when Cain’s alleged mistress went forward with details describing her 13-year affair with Cain.

This past Saturday at the spot where he was supposed to open his official campaign headquarters in Atlanta, Ga., Cain announced he would bow out the race and suspend his campaign.

South Carolina stands as a coveted state for candidates to win if they hope to oppose Democratic incumbent and current President Barack Obama for a seat in the White House.

The Winthrop Poll gives the nation an early indication of the action South Carolinian primary voters are likely to take when they march to the polls.

Results are reported by major media outlets, including FOX News, Politico.com, the Washington Post and The State newspaper of South Carolina.

Click here for full results